| 2007-2008 Season Preview: Dallas Mavericks Authored by Elliot Cole - October 29, 2007 - 4:52 pm
The Dallas Mavericks finished 67-15 in 2007, good for the 5th best record in NBA history. However, it’s another historical precedent that would resonate the loudest throughout the league: the Mavs suffered the greatest upset in NBA playoff history by falling to the 8th seeded Golden St. Warriors in 6 games.
What Mark Cuban, Avery Johnson and GM Donnie Nelson would do over the summer seemed to be the preeminent question in Dallas. While Cuban mercilessly shook his groove thing on Monday nights, he quickly put any notions of a major Mavs’ roster shakeup to rest. Dallas fans may push for Cuban to make a major move for Kobe Bryant, but the organization has made it apparent that star Dirk Nowitzki isn’t going anywhere, despite his occasional playoff struggles. The 2007-2008 team will instead look very similar to last year’s version.
And people seem to be forgetting how good a team that can be.
These Mavs are still a year and a half removed from being in the NBA finals. These Mavs also have a reigning MVP that’s in his prime. This same group was able to beat the San Antonio Spurs in the 2006 playoffs before posting the best record in the league in 2007.
The Mavs aren’t the only team gearing up for another run at a title. The cores of the Suns and defending champion Spurs have remained intact, and “second tier” teams like Houston and Denver should be improved.
Still, the biggest obstacle for Dirk and company may not be Tim Duncan or Dwyane Wade, but rather themselves. If the Mavs show a lack of confidence or a crack in team chemistry, the 07-08 season may prove that this group doesn’t have the mental toughness to hold the Larry O’Brien trophy come June.
POINT GUARD
The Mavericks are a team predicated on individual talent (they were 24th in the league in assists last season and Jason Terry led the team with a meager 5.2 a game), so the point guard isn’t integral to setting up the high post offense the Mavs employ. Devin Harris will be the starting point guard for the Mavs in 2007-2008 and his improvement is the underlying key to the team’s ascension.
Harris is lightning fast, and he is able to utilize his speed to counteract the quickness of guards like Tony Parker and Steve Nash. His defensive game is ahead of his offensive abilities, but the buzz out of Mavs camp is that Harris has put in a lot of time this summer refining his iffy jumpshot. While Harris doesn’t need to become a three point shooter for the Mavs to succeed (only 28% last season), developing a consistent 18 footer would prevent teams from collapsing on Dirk in the high post.
With his electric speed, Harris is easily able to split defenders and get to the rim. Strangely, despite his development, Harris took fewer shots last season than he did in 05-06 (from 12.7 field goal attempts per 40 minutes to 11.4 last year). When aggressive, he’s one of the best penetrators in the game…it’s just that he’s not always aggressive.
Harris is still gradually becoming the 3rd option in the set offense, and he should expand on his 10.2 points a game. He was one of the few Mavs that stepped up his game in the postseason and he shows glimmers of becoming a playmaker for his teammates as much as he is for himself. Improving on his 5.7 assists per 40 minutes would be a start.
Expect a declining Jason Terry to get a majority of the backup PG minutes. Terry isn’t near the defender of Harris, but he’s consistently one of the best midrange shooters in the game. His ability to spread the court for the likes of Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse make him an invaluable shooter. While not a true point guard, the Mavs don’t need one to run their offense efficiently, and they’ll gladly take Terry’s 43.8% three point shooting.
Grade: B+
SHOOTING GUARD
The 2 guard slot is an array of specialists for the Mavs, and the team is stacked with depth. Jerry Stackhouse was resigned to again be an indispensable 6th man and…umm…national anthem singer, but it looks more and more like he’s been thrust into the starting lineup (ushering Jason Terry to the bench). Stackhouse has the toughest offensive mentality on the roster; capable of posting up smaller defenders or slashing to the rim.
Stackhouse is a paltry rebounder considering his athleticism and size, but his shortcomings are well hidden in the structure of the Mavericks team. As he ages, Stackhouse may start to drift to the three point line more and more (he shot 38% from downtown in 2007, much higher than his career average of 30%). He is also shooting significantly less free throws than at any point in his career (3.2 per a game compared to 4.7 in his first two years with Dallas), a sign he may be slowing down a bit.
While Stackhouse becomes less of a slashing threat and more of a shooter, he’s still a valuable commodity on a team lacking toughness.
Newly acquired defensive ace Trenton Hassell and the recently signed Eddie Jones will come off the bench for the Mavs, adding experience and versatility. Jones will make the most impact if he still has any juice left in his 36 year old legs (he played significant minutes on an injury depleted Miami team last season). Second year pro Maurice Ager may also be able to contribute in a pinch.
Grade: B-
SMALL FORWARD
The newest Mavs All-Star, Josh Howard, is a prototype for the future of the NBA: long, athletic, and multi-dimensional. Howard is the team’s best individual defender, and his offensive game has blossomed under Avery Johnson.
While Howard’s shooting numbers dipped slightly in 2007, his overall game improved dramatically. Instead of being strictly a dirty work/open jumper guy, Howard became a reliable offensive option, averaging 18.9 points a contest and seldom forcing the action. His rebound rate and free throw shooting also improved considerably with his increase in playing time.
With all the fanfare for his first All-Star appearance, a specific part of Howard’s numbers is often overlooked. Howard shot fewer free throws in 2007 while taking significantly more jumpshots. His 239 three point field goal attempts in ‘07 trumped his ‘06 total of 63 (even though his percentage dipped by 4%). Howard’s jumper has improved dramatically since his rookie season, and he tends to fall in love with it instead of attacking the rim. Maintaining his aggressiveness and getting to the rim consistently should round out his game.
Howard is a horse that can play tons of minutes, but his backup situation is shady. Devean George’s playoff collapse was epic: from 39% shooting in the regular season to 20% in the playoffs, along with several untimely mistakes. If George isn’t able to get his head in the game, he could be riding the pine by midseason.
Grade: B+
POWER FORWARD
Dirk Nowitzki is (still) the Maverick’s franchise player, and his playoff miscues have been slightly exaggerated. The Golden State Warrior’s possessed a unique combination of length and athleticism to negate Nowitzki’s individual talents, but Dirk didn’t lose an entire series himself.
In fact, aside from a couple of missed free throws in the 2006 playoffs, Dirk was an unstoppable force to the tune of 27 points and 11.7 rebounds a game. The only fear with Nowitzki is that the entire NBA now has a blueprint on how to guard him. Whereas teams would previously use athletic seven footers (i.e. Francisco Elson or Udonis Haslem), it’s evident that Dirk struggles most with feisty, quick double teams from the wing.
Dirk won’t be on anybody’s MVP list this season, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s still one of the best individual scorers in the game. After cutting down his three points attempts from 3.3 a game to 2.2, Dirk became a high post monster and upped his true shooting percentage to over 60%. He’s improved as a defender and is a surprisingly good rebounder. His passing could stand to improve, but Dirk wouldn’t be accused of selfishness anytime soon.
The Mavs signed Bradon Bass and drafted Nick Fazekas with their first draft choice to backup Nowitzki, but neither is predicted to be a consistent contributor when the playoffs roll around. As it stands, this is Dirk’s team, and they’ll ride him for as long as he continues to improve.
Grade: A+
CENTER
The two headed monster of DeSagana Diop and Eric Dampier should more rightfully be called, say, a two headed troll doll. Diop and Dampier block a few shots, play positional defense, and grab a few boards for the Mavs. Other than that, they set screens and get out of the way, which suits the team just fine.
Dampier earns the majority of the minutes at the center spot, and he warrants the decision by essentially making more money than Diop. Diop, initially considered a draft bust, has shown a willingness to improve, and is quietly making a push for the starting nod. His 11.8 rebounds per 40 minutes is identical to Dampier, and he’s a better shotblocker (3.1 per 40 to 1.7 by Dampier).
If Diop develops some sort of offensive game and manages to limit his absurd foul rate of 6.6 fouls per 40 minutes, he should eventually beat out Dampier for minutes. For the time being, Dampier gets the nod based on his better hands and softer touch around the basket.
Grade: C-
2007-2008 PROJECTED RECORD: 62-20
PLAYOFFS: Western Conference Finals
Elliot Cole maintains a San Antonio Spurs blog at www.thesilverandblack.blogspot.com and can be reached at elliot.cole@yahoo.com. |
